Greg S
Well-Known Member
Nice analysis Max. One suggestion if you’ve not already done it: I see you have elevation (climbing) for each stage which is great. If you have the data it might be useful to have a look at your performance on similar rides & grades and use that to calculate/verify your predicted speed.Here is my first pass looking at the the PBP. I used my planned weight (about 200lbs) and bike weight.
I have a formula in a spreadsheet that I’ve used for years that given a distance and total elevation as input will calculate average speed. After a long brevet I compare what I actually did against my predicted speed and tweak the formula as necessary for future events. This has proven to be very useful on days 2-3-4-5. I try to do this analysis within a week or two of finishing so I can apply any subjective information that might affect it like headwinds, feeling ill, poor sleep, etc., and use that to filter anomalies.
When I first started doing this and hadn’t done the analysis my predicted speeds for the later stages were pure fantasy ;-)