I got a package in the mail yesterday which will let me update not one, but two threads on this forum
I just got some promising bags so I can see how they fit, and return the ones I won't use.
The good news first: The small Zefal Z bag (1.3 l) and the expandable Blackburn Outpost (4.3/5.8 l) fit perfectly and were both easy to mount properly without having to get creative. If you can't see the Blackburn, it's because it's in camo. It was the only colour available
The SKS Explorer (4 l) bag technically fits, but it felt like wheel interference would be inevitable. Besides, there was no straightforward way to mount it to the bike.
The PRO Discover (5.5 l) looks promising:
It has a quite stiff shape and looks like it will stay away from the rear wheel.
But it is also quite wide, and definitely won't fit under the lip of the seat. That's OK, though, as long as I figure out a good way to mount the thing.
The Topeak Midloader (6 l) also looks promising:
This one has a much softer shape, and might interfere with the rear wheel if not packed full. And it also needs a creative mounting solution. It would be great if the top right loop could just attach to the neck rest there, but that puts the bag too close to the wheel.